David Friedman recently posted an interesting entrepreneurial proposal regarding the importation of historical jewelry.
I thought of a possible improvement to the business plan:
It would be still more profitable, obviously, to have workers provide you with custom arts and crafts for free.
The guilt-free method of doing so would be to scam bait a conniving Nigerian (which is surprisingly easy given the likely 50 point average IQ difference) which, when done with sufficient skill, can generate very impressive artwork.
A team of five to ten such baiters could rake in the profits while simultaneously preventing thousands of crimes.
The linked-to bust is of the scam baiter "Shiver Metimbers". Getting free, customized busts made is the least of it.
I imagine a network of professional, Shiver Metimbers level scam baiters auctioning off custom busts and custom tattoos - "your face tattooed on a Nigerian scammer! e-mail history of bait included" - selecting the most gullible scammers by some sort of field-validated gullibility test.
On another note, I recently posted my description of a proposed variation of Islam, Neo-Muhammadanism, to IslamicBoard.com. The post was overwhelmingly voted up and received a comment, "good", which increases my confidence that Neo-Muhammadanism will quickly replace the obsolete version of Islam.
Also, since converting to Neo-Muhammadanism, debating progressives has become astonishingly easy. On page two of the posted thread I used Islamic debate tactics to immediately silence "VegetarianSoul", who had previously been impervious to all argument. Progressivism is completely submissive to Islam, and my variation is no exception.
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Friday, December 18, 2009
Escaping the Decadence of Monotheism: Neo-Muhammadanism and the Cuckoo Strategy
This clip may call out some strange imagining; some distant vision of myriad worlds, bound to geodesics like notes to melodies; some starless vision of alien oceans. We see sea life orbit in liquid ellipses; a thousand lives swimming, floating, like space debris, or the sounds in an unwritten symphony; soft against faintly-curved gravity, governed in the finest grain of time, like planets and stars under glass, and indifferent.
Naturally, I expected to see appreciative comments for this video, and truly appreciative, at the very least, for offering a moment's escape from internet inanity. I was, then, quite surprised to see comments such as the following, which follow this clip wherever it's posted.
1) Mixed feelings ... As a Scuba Diver I want to do nothing but get in there , But as a Person all I want to do is to put them back in the Sea where they belong . They are so wonderfull. But it dose WOW me.
2) It's so beautiful, but at the same time its very sad to know that those animals are stuck in a box with no freedom to swim where they wish, being surrounded by people who watch them all the time. It's sort of like prison to me.
3) Or you can look at it as cages and the animals can't escape. These animals are meant to have HUGE areas to swim in and swim miles and miles. They need that. It is not our right to take them away from their natural homes, no matter how it educates us. We can be educated through video and lessons, not imprisoning other species.
Of course, we know that no one really gives a shit about fish. This is an affected piety to signal one’s commitment to Gaiaism, which is a perversion of a perversion of Christianity.
It's disgusting that Christianity, the foundation of Western culture, has been contorted into these sickening, hyper-feminine worldviews; it becomes more intense and irrational once limits set by tradition and command are stripped away. Its permutability allows for markets and scientific revolutions, but its more strongly imprinted traits inevitably evolve, in the absence of religious dogma, toward totalitarian ideologies.
Mencius Moldbug brilliantly describes the metamorphosis of "mainline progressive Protestantism", the dominant U.S. denomination, into "Universalism" here. TGGP originally noted that Islam seemed the best fit for Moldbug's system.
Naturally, I expected to see appreciative comments for this video, and truly appreciative, at the very least, for offering a moment's escape from internet inanity. I was, then, quite surprised to see comments such as the following, which follow this clip wherever it's posted.
1) Mixed feelings ... As a Scuba Diver I want to do nothing but get in there , But as a Person all I want to do is to put them back in the Sea where they belong . They are so wonderfull. But it dose WOW me.
2) It's so beautiful, but at the same time its very sad to know that those animals are stuck in a box with no freedom to swim where they wish, being surrounded by people who watch them all the time. It's sort of like prison to me.
3) Or you can look at it as cages and the animals can't escape. These animals are meant to have HUGE areas to swim in and swim miles and miles. They need that. It is not our right to take them away from their natural homes, no matter how it educates us. We can be educated through video and lessons, not imprisoning other species.
Of course, we know that no one really gives a shit about fish. This is an affected piety to signal one’s commitment to Gaiaism, which is a perversion of a perversion of Christianity.
It's disgusting that Christianity, the foundation of Western culture, has been contorted into these sickening, hyper-feminine worldviews; it becomes more intense and irrational once limits set by tradition and command are stripped away. Its permutability allows for markets and scientific revolutions, but its more strongly imprinted traits inevitably evolve, in the absence of religious dogma, toward totalitarian ideologies.
Mencius Moldbug brilliantly describes the metamorphosis of "mainline progressive Protestantism", the dominant U.S. denomination, into "Universalism" here. TGGP originally noted that Islam seemed the best fit for Moldbug's system.
Saturday, December 5, 2009
Friday, December 4, 2009
The Baddest Man on the Planet
Who is the baddest man on the planet? The man who, when locked in a cage, unarmed, with any other man on Earth, would come out victorious in single combat? Can you tell just by looking at him? See if you can make the correct choice:
Did you pick the guy in the snazzy sweater, Fedor Emelianenko? That’s right: the universally recognized, undefeated, number one ranked heavyweight of the mixed martial arts world is a chubby, bald Russian who dresses like Bill Cosby, except when he dresses like your four-year-old nephew:
Yes, Fedor likes cartoons. While virtually all other fighters cover themselves in tattoos and wear shirts with various combinations of skulls, flames, pit bulls, grim reapers, and more skulls, Fedor is drawing pictures like these:
Such a strange set of traits make Fedor one of the most fascinating characters in any combat sport.
And that’s just scratching the surface.
In a strange inversion of the Rocky IV plot, Fedor trains with a local team with no other top fighters, pounding tires with sledgehammers and chopping wood, while top American fighters train at state of the art gyms with dozens of top fighters, coaches, nutritionists, and personal trainers.
Fedor recently converted to Eastern Orthodox Christianity, and brings his priest, father Andrei, to his fights. Father Andrei bears a disturbing resemblance to Rasputin and holds the gym record for pull ups.
Fedor has won millions in the course of his fight career, but lives in a small apartment with his family. Money seems unimportant to him, now that he has enough of it: he turned down a five million dollar a fight contract with the Ultimate Fighting Championships, offered by the foul-mouthed president, Dana White. Instead, he accepted a less lucrative contract with the little known Strikeforce.
Strikeforce also managed to obtain a network television contract. White failed to do so, likely because of his winning personality. The combination of Fedor and NBC offers a frightening challenge to the UFC: Fedor’s first fight in Strikeforce on Nov 8th, a second-round knockout of the much larger Brett Rogers, drew millions of viewers world wide.
If you’re curious as to how this unassuming fellow has managed to remain undefeated in over 30 fights for over 9 years, be sure to look up some of his fights (such as this highlight or even this vid of Fedor vs. six Koreans).
The transformation once he steps in the cage brings to mind Clark Kent stepping into a phone booth. His ferocious combination of speed and brute force recalls the days of Mike Tyson – and Fedor may just become that level of star.
And these sweaters will become all the rage.
Did you pick the guy in the snazzy sweater, Fedor Emelianenko? That’s right: the universally recognized, undefeated, number one ranked heavyweight of the mixed martial arts world is a chubby, bald Russian who dresses like Bill Cosby, except when he dresses like your four-year-old nephew:
Yes, Fedor likes cartoons. While virtually all other fighters cover themselves in tattoos and wear shirts with various combinations of skulls, flames, pit bulls, grim reapers, and more skulls, Fedor is drawing pictures like these:
Such a strange set of traits make Fedor one of the most fascinating characters in any combat sport.
And that’s just scratching the surface.
In a strange inversion of the Rocky IV plot, Fedor trains with a local team with no other top fighters, pounding tires with sledgehammers and chopping wood, while top American fighters train at state of the art gyms with dozens of top fighters, coaches, nutritionists, and personal trainers.
Fedor recently converted to Eastern Orthodox Christianity, and brings his priest, father Andrei, to his fights. Father Andrei bears a disturbing resemblance to Rasputin and holds the gym record for pull ups.
Fedor has won millions in the course of his fight career, but lives in a small apartment with his family. Money seems unimportant to him, now that he has enough of it: he turned down a five million dollar a fight contract with the Ultimate Fighting Championships, offered by the foul-mouthed president, Dana White. Instead, he accepted a less lucrative contract with the little known Strikeforce.
Strikeforce also managed to obtain a network television contract. White failed to do so, likely because of his winning personality. The combination of Fedor and NBC offers a frightening challenge to the UFC: Fedor’s first fight in Strikeforce on Nov 8th, a second-round knockout of the much larger Brett Rogers, drew millions of viewers world wide.
If you’re curious as to how this unassuming fellow has managed to remain undefeated in over 30 fights for over 9 years, be sure to look up some of his fights (such as this highlight or even this vid of Fedor vs. six Koreans).
The transformation once he steps in the cage brings to mind Clark Kent stepping into a phone booth. His ferocious combination of speed and brute force recalls the days of Mike Tyson – and Fedor may just become that level of star.
And these sweaters will become all the rage.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Suicide: The Quantum Road to Wealth and Happiness
If the many worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics is correct, there should always be some universe in which a version of you survives. As you age, the odds of your death increase yearly, monthly, daily, but even when you reach one thousand years there will be an infinitesimal chance of surviving one more day, and thus there will exist a universe in which you will continue existing.
Still more interesting: what path does your consciousness follow? If the universe “splits” in two, one carrying your corpse, the other leaving you breathing, then it would seem your consciousness would have to proceed along the path in which you live. Since there will always be a universe in which you live, and your consciousness will always proceed to such a universe, your consciousness is essentially indestructible: you are quant-immortal.
How likely is the many worlds theory? More than you may think. Feynmann considered it the most likely model, as do many other physicists. So, let’s assume that there’s a five percent chance you’re quant-immortal. This gives you a five percent chance of becoming a millionaire.
Here’s how: rig up an error-proof device that fires a shotgun upon receiving lottery numbers not matching a given ticket. “Error-proof” is of course impossible – the machine must simply be an order of magnitude less likely to fail than for the numbers to miss.
Chain yourself up, forehead before the shotgun. If you are quant-immortal, and the device nearly error-proof, you will likely find your consciousness arriving in one of those happy universes in which the numbers happened to hit: you’ll have won the lottery. In various other universes your brains lie on the floor, but in various other universes you’re the King of Luxembourg. The other universes are irrelevant; the knowledge is the thing. With this knowledge in hand, you could use such a device, with sufficient creativity, to send your consciousness into whichever desired reality imagined – you would have hacked the universe.
Of course, a 95% or greater chance of death will likely dissuade you from our experiment, but the next time you’re standing on a ledge on a lonely night, come on down and set up a lottery-shotgun-rig. Your surrender may just be the first step towards godhood … or a most puzzling suicide-note.
Still more interesting: what path does your consciousness follow? If the universe “splits” in two, one carrying your corpse, the other leaving you breathing, then it would seem your consciousness would have to proceed along the path in which you live. Since there will always be a universe in which you live, and your consciousness will always proceed to such a universe, your consciousness is essentially indestructible: you are quant-immortal.
How likely is the many worlds theory? More than you may think. Feynmann considered it the most likely model, as do many other physicists. So, let’s assume that there’s a five percent chance you’re quant-immortal. This gives you a five percent chance of becoming a millionaire.
Here’s how: rig up an error-proof device that fires a shotgun upon receiving lottery numbers not matching a given ticket. “Error-proof” is of course impossible – the machine must simply be an order of magnitude less likely to fail than for the numbers to miss.
Chain yourself up, forehead before the shotgun. If you are quant-immortal, and the device nearly error-proof, you will likely find your consciousness arriving in one of those happy universes in which the numbers happened to hit: you’ll have won the lottery. In various other universes your brains lie on the floor, but in various other universes you’re the King of Luxembourg. The other universes are irrelevant; the knowledge is the thing. With this knowledge in hand, you could use such a device, with sufficient creativity, to send your consciousness into whichever desired reality imagined – you would have hacked the universe.
Of course, a 95% or greater chance of death will likely dissuade you from our experiment, but the next time you’re standing on a ledge on a lonely night, come on down and set up a lottery-shotgun-rig. Your surrender may just be the first step towards godhood … or a most puzzling suicide-note.
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
NHB 2.0: The Rebirth of Vale Tudo
The original UFC was castrated by the boxing lobby; perverted, purchased, and repackaged as the UFC you see today. The current management destroyed the previous incarnation, rebuilt it with political power, and warped it with corruption. What we watch now is the incestuous union of sibling sports. Boxing’s rape of NHB begat the Zuffa UFC, its parentage apparent in its scoring system, rules, management, and corruption. The Zuffa UFC will soon fall, but all successors will be of its lineage.
We must have a fresh start, outside the Citadel. We will uncover our genesis like ruins; build upon its foundation, silently, until our beautiful slave clothes rip to shreds and a step pyramid of stone looms before us. A new business model; a new sport, towering over the rotting mass of the Citadel.
The sport is easy: Vale Tudo. Our rules: the standard Vale Tudo prohibitions, along with a ban on strikes to the back of the head and neck. If cuts become too great a problem, we will reluctantly prohibit headbutts.
Our ideal set of rules will likely be Pride’s rules + elbows, with gloves optional. Our judging system will be the Predict-Wager System.
We will then have, in our ideal combat sport, slightly modified Vale Tudo rules, an improved round system, and a judging system which rates the judges, referees, and fighters, paying them accordingly. NHB 2.0 is already superior to MMA.
Certain fighters will be attracted to such rules. Many will wish to test themselves. Frozen corpses litter Everest, yet men still climb K2. The perceived brutality is one advantage, the allowance of gis and freed hands another. Along with a scoring system which emphasizes finishes and longer rounds, such rules will be seen by jiu jitsu practitioners as ideal. Headbutts may rapidly change that impression.
Even with preferred rules, attracting top fighters will require money. Our most profitable innovation is the Predict-Wager System itself – it will be utilized by the judges themselves, true, but the profitability will come from the audience. They will be given the chance to risk their money at various terminals which litter the floor like slot machines. The fighters will be given a cut of all chips wagered on them to finish their opponent.
Our initial matchmaking will be the simplest and the oldest: the tournament. In this way, a fighter who proceeds through all rounds to the championship makes considerable money from accumulated wagers alone, plus win bonuses. A sandbagging A-level fighter could find such a tournament quite profitable, even in its infancy. NHB 2.0 is then further differentiated from MMA.
Allowing for our rules is trivial. In states with no commission, we can do as we please, and in states with a commission, we will promote on reservations. For perspective, consider that any small show you’ve seen in which a contestant wears a shirt or wrestling shoes is not strictly following the unified rules.
The events will be streamed over the internet, as Rio Heroes was. The profitability of the Rio Heroes model was proven, and the calls by the “MMA community” for its prohibition demonstrate just how different things have become. The Castrati, of course, did not join the chorus, but their voices faded before legions of Whiteshirts, as eager to prohibit NHB as their Zuffa heroes before.
It is the Castrati, now, who have the choice. If MMA is what you’d hoped it would become ten years ago, then sit quietly and enjoy your UFCs. If the ten-point must system satisfies you, or if you think it will be changed, then continue debating spoilers while awaiting the next TUF. If watching NHB prohibitionists such as Ratner profit from our dead sport doesn’t irk you, then simply continue supporting the UFC.
But if the notion of a sixteen-man Vale Tudo tournament fills you with nostalgia – memories of bare knuckles, size disadvantages, and fear; uncertainty, head butts, and style vs. style; that unmistakable Bloodsport quality – and if the state of the sport called MMA disgusts you, and you desire a return, then you must work to make it happen.
A Castrati promoter, or a business-savvy Castrato, will begin an NHB 2.0 promotion. There is an amateur Vale Tudo event called UCL in New York, and professional organizations are coming, as Rio Heroes came before. If you are a promoter, consider it: it may make you very wealthy. Transfer your support to this true version of MMA; divert your focus from the popularity of the UFC. The Castrati must form a new support network for NHB as passionate and unbreakable as pre-TUF MMA’s. The first and simplest step is the realization that they are entirely different sports.
We must have a fresh start, outside the Citadel. We will uncover our genesis like ruins; build upon its foundation, silently, until our beautiful slave clothes rip to shreds and a step pyramid of stone looms before us. A new business model; a new sport, towering over the rotting mass of the Citadel.
The sport is easy: Vale Tudo. Our rules: the standard Vale Tudo prohibitions, along with a ban on strikes to the back of the head and neck. If cuts become too great a problem, we will reluctantly prohibit headbutts.
Our ideal set of rules will likely be Pride’s rules + elbows, with gloves optional. Our judging system will be the Predict-Wager System.
We will then have, in our ideal combat sport, slightly modified Vale Tudo rules, an improved round system, and a judging system which rates the judges, referees, and fighters, paying them accordingly. NHB 2.0 is already superior to MMA.
Certain fighters will be attracted to such rules. Many will wish to test themselves. Frozen corpses litter Everest, yet men still climb K2. The perceived brutality is one advantage, the allowance of gis and freed hands another. Along with a scoring system which emphasizes finishes and longer rounds, such rules will be seen by jiu jitsu practitioners as ideal. Headbutts may rapidly change that impression.
Even with preferred rules, attracting top fighters will require money. Our most profitable innovation is the Predict-Wager System itself – it will be utilized by the judges themselves, true, but the profitability will come from the audience. They will be given the chance to risk their money at various terminals which litter the floor like slot machines. The fighters will be given a cut of all chips wagered on them to finish their opponent.
Our initial matchmaking will be the simplest and the oldest: the tournament. In this way, a fighter who proceeds through all rounds to the championship makes considerable money from accumulated wagers alone, plus win bonuses. A sandbagging A-level fighter could find such a tournament quite profitable, even in its infancy. NHB 2.0 is then further differentiated from MMA.
Allowing for our rules is trivial. In states with no commission, we can do as we please, and in states with a commission, we will promote on reservations. For perspective, consider that any small show you’ve seen in which a contestant wears a shirt or wrestling shoes is not strictly following the unified rules.
The events will be streamed over the internet, as Rio Heroes was. The profitability of the Rio Heroes model was proven, and the calls by the “MMA community” for its prohibition demonstrate just how different things have become. The Castrati, of course, did not join the chorus, but their voices faded before legions of Whiteshirts, as eager to prohibit NHB as their Zuffa heroes before.
It is the Castrati, now, who have the choice. If MMA is what you’d hoped it would become ten years ago, then sit quietly and enjoy your UFCs. If the ten-point must system satisfies you, or if you think it will be changed, then continue debating spoilers while awaiting the next TUF. If watching NHB prohibitionists such as Ratner profit from our dead sport doesn’t irk you, then simply continue supporting the UFC.
But if the notion of a sixteen-man Vale Tudo tournament fills you with nostalgia – memories of bare knuckles, size disadvantages, and fear; uncertainty, head butts, and style vs. style; that unmistakable Bloodsport quality – and if the state of the sport called MMA disgusts you, and you desire a return, then you must work to make it happen.
A Castrati promoter, or a business-savvy Castrato, will begin an NHB 2.0 promotion. There is an amateur Vale Tudo event called UCL in New York, and professional organizations are coming, as Rio Heroes came before. If you are a promoter, consider it: it may make you very wealthy. Transfer your support to this true version of MMA; divert your focus from the popularity of the UFC. The Castrati must form a new support network for NHB as passionate and unbreakable as pre-TUF MMA’s. The first and simplest step is the realization that they are entirely different sports.
The Predict-Wager Judging System
The ten-point must system is designed for boxing. It is implemented by boxing commissions, utilized by boxing judges, and produces, when applied to a mixed combat sport, absurd decisions, even when applied correctly. It fails to incentivize proper judging; it incentivizes wins by decision (witness Guida’s transformation). Its one redeeming quality (for those who choose the system) is that it hides corruption and incompetence in its ambiguity.
Admittedly, it’s easy to point out problems. Maybe the ten-point must system is simply the best available. If not, we should stop whining until we offer an alternative. The test, then, is in designing a better system.
But one has already been designed: Pride’s judging system. Pride’s system, however, still produced its share of bad decisions and boring fights. We should consider both as design flaws of any system, and we must design a system that excludes the possibility of such flaws.
Our system will be engineered specifically for mixed combat sports. It will be greatly simplified, due to the simple nature of these sports’ objective: finish the opponent. It will incentivize good judging and legitimate efforts to finish the opponent.
With these objectives in mind, consider the “Predict-Wager System”. A revised description (from Decline and Fall 2):
“’The judge shall be paid in accordance to his return on real-time wagers on the fight. The judge will bet on the likelihood of fighter A finishing fighter B by placing a wager, weighted by his estimation of the likelihood of a finish by fighter A of fighter B. The value of the wager drops (after a calibrated grace period) as time passes, and the value of the chips used in wagering drops as more total chips are wagered. To encourage betting, increasing odds are offered on a fighter during increasing periods in which other judges have not bet on that fighter.
If there is no finish, the judge will be recorded as voting for the fighter on which he bet the most total chips, the fighter who receives the most votes shall win the decision, and the judges shall be paid a fixed rate.’
A judge, witnessing a knockdown, would bet strongly, as he would upon seeing a close armbar attempt. He would bet weakly on takedowns, depending on the perceived danger (or lack thereof) to the bottom fighter. He would bet very little on a fighter like Sherk. Accumulating “points” via lay and pray, or Tim Sylvia style strategies, would become obsolete. The “Fight of the Night” would be easy to calculate, based on total chips bet and their distribution between the fighters.
Skilled judges would be quantitatively identified simply by being those who make the most money – those who saw danger and predicted it without having devalued their chips. Unskilled judges would then be dismissed, or would quit due to low pay. With three judges betting very heavily that a fighter is about to be finished, referees who stop the fight at the correct moment can be easily identified. To greatly increase the action and risk taking of the sport, we would make the fighter’s pay in large part determined by the amount of chips bet on him to finish the fight.
We thus change the incentives: previously having little incentive to judge correctly, the judge is now paid directly in accordance with how well he can predict finishes in MMA, and thus how well he understands the sport. Knowledgeable people then have a strong incentive to become judges; Peoples would lose his incentive to remain one. And fighters would have to be capable of finishing, or at least threatening to do so, and would have a strong incentive to go for the finish, where previously their incentive was to hold down the opponent and not take risks.”
Such a system would require computers, which is likely the only reason it was not previously designed. The number of virtual “chips” is unlimited, but their value declines with every chip bet. The proper numbers for the decline, the grace period, the increasing odds, and the payouts will be determined initially by an economist, and calibrated by experiment, to ensure the judges and the fighters are incentivized in the most efficient way.
To make this all concrete, I will give an example of how to score a fight using the Predict-Wager System, based on a fight I have not previously seen. The value in chips bet, listed in dollars, is simply convention; the quantity represents my estimation of the probability of a finish. “I wager $90 worth of chips,” simply means I believe there’s a 90% chance of a finish (ignoring any betting strategies I may use).
Here’s a quick use of the Predict-Wager System to evaluate Sadollah-Baroni:
Round 1, Minute 1: Baroni comes out strong, swinging wildly. It’s not extremely threatening, but punches are landing hard and one may find its mark. I wager $20 on Baroni.
For the rest of the round, nothing threatening occurs.
Round 2, Minute 3: Sadalloh is opening up on a gassed Baroni with knees, elbows, and kicks; the end seems near. I wager $30 on Sadollah.
Round 3: Baroni seems ready to go at various moments throughout this round: I wager, at different periods, in succession, $40, $50, and $30.
The fight ends. I have wagered a total of $150 on Sadollah and only $20 on Baroni. My vote goes to Sadollah, as do those of the other judges.
Sadollah, however, would likely have finished the fight if he’d had the greater incentives to do so that the Predict-Wager System provides. He was certainly capable of doing so.
In addition to eliminating poor judging and boring fights, the Predict-Wager System will also provide another means of extreme profit: gambling. Judging under the Predict-Wager System becomes a skill-based game of chance, more skill-based than hold ‘em, more entertaining than horse racing. Casinos will hold Predict-Wager tournaments on the nights of fights, and champions will become eligible for a judging spot in the big show.
Unfortunately, the current big show will never use such a system. It is regulated by a bureaucracy, and bureaucracies have two characteristics: 1) they are resistant to change and 2) they abhor accountability. The Predict-Wager System would allow instant evaluation of the competence of the judges. Worse still, it would allow instant evaluation of the competence the one who selects them (Kizer).
Any promoter who does realize the profitability of the Predict-Wager System may contact me for clarification of details or the initial code for the wagering software (contact details in profile).
But in the end, the Rebirth requires far more than simply a new judging system. The Predict-Wager System is but a small part of an entirely new strategy; a business plan and a sport as distinct from the UFC as muay thai is from kickboxing.
This plan will be fully described in my next post.
Admittedly, it’s easy to point out problems. Maybe the ten-point must system is simply the best available. If not, we should stop whining until we offer an alternative. The test, then, is in designing a better system.
But one has already been designed: Pride’s judging system. Pride’s system, however, still produced its share of bad decisions and boring fights. We should consider both as design flaws of any system, and we must design a system that excludes the possibility of such flaws.
Our system will be engineered specifically for mixed combat sports. It will be greatly simplified, due to the simple nature of these sports’ objective: finish the opponent. It will incentivize good judging and legitimate efforts to finish the opponent.
With these objectives in mind, consider the “Predict-Wager System”. A revised description (from Decline and Fall 2):
“’The judge shall be paid in accordance to his return on real-time wagers on the fight. The judge will bet on the likelihood of fighter A finishing fighter B by placing a wager, weighted by his estimation of the likelihood of a finish by fighter A of fighter B. The value of the wager drops (after a calibrated grace period) as time passes, and the value of the chips used in wagering drops as more total chips are wagered. To encourage betting, increasing odds are offered on a fighter during increasing periods in which other judges have not bet on that fighter.
If there is no finish, the judge will be recorded as voting for the fighter on which he bet the most total chips, the fighter who receives the most votes shall win the decision, and the judges shall be paid a fixed rate.’
A judge, witnessing a knockdown, would bet strongly, as he would upon seeing a close armbar attempt. He would bet weakly on takedowns, depending on the perceived danger (or lack thereof) to the bottom fighter. He would bet very little on a fighter like Sherk. Accumulating “points” via lay and pray, or Tim Sylvia style strategies, would become obsolete. The “Fight of the Night” would be easy to calculate, based on total chips bet and their distribution between the fighters.
Skilled judges would be quantitatively identified simply by being those who make the most money – those who saw danger and predicted it without having devalued their chips. Unskilled judges would then be dismissed, or would quit due to low pay. With three judges betting very heavily that a fighter is about to be finished, referees who stop the fight at the correct moment can be easily identified. To greatly increase the action and risk taking of the sport, we would make the fighter’s pay in large part determined by the amount of chips bet on him to finish the fight.
We thus change the incentives: previously having little incentive to judge correctly, the judge is now paid directly in accordance with how well he can predict finishes in MMA, and thus how well he understands the sport. Knowledgeable people then have a strong incentive to become judges; Peoples would lose his incentive to remain one. And fighters would have to be capable of finishing, or at least threatening to do so, and would have a strong incentive to go for the finish, where previously their incentive was to hold down the opponent and not take risks.”
Such a system would require computers, which is likely the only reason it was not previously designed. The number of virtual “chips” is unlimited, but their value declines with every chip bet. The proper numbers for the decline, the grace period, the increasing odds, and the payouts will be determined initially by an economist, and calibrated by experiment, to ensure the judges and the fighters are incentivized in the most efficient way.
To make this all concrete, I will give an example of how to score a fight using the Predict-Wager System, based on a fight I have not previously seen. The value in chips bet, listed in dollars, is simply convention; the quantity represents my estimation of the probability of a finish. “I wager $90 worth of chips,” simply means I believe there’s a 90% chance of a finish (ignoring any betting strategies I may use).
Here’s a quick use of the Predict-Wager System to evaluate Sadollah-Baroni:
Round 1, Minute 1: Baroni comes out strong, swinging wildly. It’s not extremely threatening, but punches are landing hard and one may find its mark. I wager $20 on Baroni.
For the rest of the round, nothing threatening occurs.
Round 2, Minute 3: Sadalloh is opening up on a gassed Baroni with knees, elbows, and kicks; the end seems near. I wager $30 on Sadollah.
Round 3: Baroni seems ready to go at various moments throughout this round: I wager, at different periods, in succession, $40, $50, and $30.
The fight ends. I have wagered a total of $150 on Sadollah and only $20 on Baroni. My vote goes to Sadollah, as do those of the other judges.
Sadollah, however, would likely have finished the fight if he’d had the greater incentives to do so that the Predict-Wager System provides. He was certainly capable of doing so.
In addition to eliminating poor judging and boring fights, the Predict-Wager System will also provide another means of extreme profit: gambling. Judging under the Predict-Wager System becomes a skill-based game of chance, more skill-based than hold ‘em, more entertaining than horse racing. Casinos will hold Predict-Wager tournaments on the nights of fights, and champions will become eligible for a judging spot in the big show.
Unfortunately, the current big show will never use such a system. It is regulated by a bureaucracy, and bureaucracies have two characteristics: 1) they are resistant to change and 2) they abhor accountability. The Predict-Wager System would allow instant evaluation of the competence of the judges. Worse still, it would allow instant evaluation of the competence the one who selects them (Kizer).
Any promoter who does realize the profitability of the Predict-Wager System may contact me for clarification of details or the initial code for the wagering software (contact details in profile).
But in the end, the Rebirth requires far more than simply a new judging system. The Predict-Wager System is but a small part of an entirely new strategy; a business plan and a sport as distinct from the UFC as muay thai is from kickboxing.
This plan will be fully described in my next post.
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